Macro regime investing
How to build a regime framework that guides research without turning four quadrants into a false promise of certainty.
Summary
A regime model is a compression tool: it reduces a complex environment into a small number of states while retaining direction, confidence, and disagreement.
Why it matters
Asset behavior changes with growth, inflation, policy, liquidity, and starting valuation. Regimes help choose the right questions and historical comparisons.
What to watch
Growth direction
Inflation direction
Policy and liquidity
Market confirmation
Research workflow
- 01Classify the macro state
- 02Assess confidence and transition risk
- 03Review historical sensitivities
- 04Translate to sectors, factors, and scenarios