Macro Commentary
Without the Noise
Thought leadership and market analysis from the Zinscapital research team. We write when we have something meaningful to say — not to fill a content calendar.
European Credit: Opportunity in the Cracks
As the ECB navigates its cutting cycle, investment-grade European credit offers a rare combination of carry, quality, and relative safety. We assess where spreads are most attractive and where the risks are underappreciated.
Fragmentation and the End of the Global Dollar Cycle
The weaponisation of the dollar and SWIFT sanctions has accelerated discussions around reserve currency diversification. We explore the implications for global capital flows, EM currencies, and commodity pricing.
Sector Rotation in a Late-Cycle Economy
Historical data on sector performance across economic cycles reveals clear patterns. We identify which sectors tend to outperform as growth decelerates and what the current macro indicators are signalling for positioning.
Gold's New Role in the Post-ZIRP World
Gold's outperformance during a period of rising real yields challenges conventional wisdom. We revisit the drivers of gold prices and examine whether the metal has entered a new structural bull phase.
Building a Macro Regime Framework: The Zinscapital Approach
We outline the four-quadrant macro regime model at the heart of our investment process — how we define regimes, what indicators we track, and how the framework maps to asset class behaviour.
Fed Pivot Watch: Reading the Signals Beneath the Headlines
Markets obsess over FOMC meeting dates, but the more useful signal lies in the Fed's reaction function — how it weighs growth, inflation, and financial stability data. We decode the current policy calculus.
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