Workflow

From a signal idea to its risk and crowding

A rotation or carry signal looks good in isolation and you need to know what it is actually exposed to.

From a signal idea to its risk and crowding

Starts when: A rotation or carry signal looks good in isolation and you need to know what it is actually exposed to.

A signal's backtest is the least interesting thing about it. The sequence measures the signal, then asks what it is correlated with, how crowded it is, and what it would do to a portfolio that already holds something.

  1. CTA / Systematic

    CTAPortfolio plan

    Inspect the systematic signals across the futures universe, with their crowding measures.

    You get: Per-market signal state and a crowding read, with the construction shown.

  2. Sector Rotation

    SECTProfessional plan

    Place the signal against the rotation and relative-strength picture.

    You get: Rotation state with the lookback stated.

  3. Return Probability

    RPROBProfessional plan

    Look at the historical distribution of outcomes from this state, not just the mean.

    You get: A distribution with its sample size — which is the number that decides whether it means anything.

  4. Risk Dashboard

    RISKPortfolio plan

    Push the resulting exposure through the risk dashboard.

    You get: Factor and scenario sensitivities for the portfolio that would hold it.

Limits. Backtested and modelled results are not live performance, and small samples flip correlation signs easily — sample size is shown next to every distribution for that reason. The terminal does not execute.

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